Whitmore 2024
No G2 or G1 races this week so we'll cover the Whitmore Stakes at Oaklawn. There are no Whitmores in this field and this is a soft G3. Pace of the race appears tepid with only two "T" horses with ES>100.
1. Osbourne - Stretched out to a Mile in last and Moquette is 30% going route to sprint. 8-1 is a fair price but not a ton of value with this mid-pack horse. Not impossible underneath.
2. Tejano Twist - Deserving favorite and will likely get bet down. Has beaten several in here even when pace was soft. Most likely winner but wouldn't accept anything short of 5-2 as win wager. Top Energy in race. Horse to beat.
3. Ryvit - Very nice 3yo season winning 6 of 11 including multiple stakes efforts. Got beat by Ryvit at end of 3yo season but improved dramatically in first start at age 4. Should have lead turning for home and will be tough to run down. Contender.
4. Surveillance - Veteran horse at Fair Grounds and lone effort at Oaklawn was a solid 4th beaten 4 lengths by Skelly. Took a break from July to January and gets "23" form cycle for 3rd start off the layoff. First two preps this year are useful. Best Odds improves to 3-1 with $12 of value. Only gets the C+ but is the best wagering option in the race. 96 Energy is competitive. Must use underneath. Price play!
5. Ninja Warrior - Should get a good trip in 2nd stalking Ryvit. Been a win machine against lesser at OP. Takes the step up into a G3 race for solid connections. Should fade in the stretch but has a shot at bottom of trifecta. First start w/o Lasix.
6. Jaxon traveler - Shipped to Sunland to easily win weak stakes race wire 2 wire. Looks to slow on Energy/ES and will be overbet with Prat on board. Toss.
7. Cowan - Jacobson ships in from East Coast 1st off the claim (C1). Playable if horse drifted up to 20-1 which might happen.
Bottom Line - Could be considered a 2 horse race with Tejano Twist and Ryvit but the Value Play on top is Surveillance who also should be used underneath both logical horses in exactas/trifectas. Good luck folks! #CHV