Tampa Bay
Important 50 point prep at Tampa Bay and race looks wide open with a lot of pace. Field doesn't look particularly strong but with a full field offers good betting opportunities.
1. My Liberty - Stretches out after maiden win going 7F with LASIX on. Big long-shot.
2. Super Strong - Wins a G1 in Puerto Rico in debut & now makes 3yo debut in America for superb connections. Shows up pretty high in my sheet but horse is stretching out & dropping LASIX. Horse is a closer and I would want at least 12-1.
3. Candy Man Rocket - Impressive winner of Sam Davis in okay time. Eligible to improve again in 3rd start of form cycle. Has tactical speed and can rate off the hot early pace. Contender.
4. King of Dreams - Set slow pace breaking maiden on turf. Dirt effort was poor and pedigree is slanted toward the grass. Poor Energy & drops Lasix. Doubt horse gets lead here, pass.
5. Boca Boy - Had lead against Candy Man Rocket and couldn't hold him off late. Expect similar result today. 15-1 odds is probably an overlay.
6. Awesome Gerry - Heavily raced and no match in previous stakes races. Faces a bit weaker today but upside is limited.
7. Moonlite Strike - A horse that needs lead but likely won't get it. Saffie may send this one to battle with Boca Boy & soften Candy Man Rocket for stable mate Super Strong.
8. Hidden Stash - I bet this one in Sam Davis and he ran well. That was first start of year & he could improve today. Gets Bejarano back who he won with twice. Good closing style and gets a good pace set-up. Prime candidate to beat Candy Man Rocket
9. Unbridled Honor - Broke maiden when dropped in against weaker at Tampa. Eligible to improve but was way too slow in victory with LASIX on. Pass
10. Helium - So many question marks making 3yo debut stretching out off long layoff, dropping LASIX and switching from synthetic to dirt. Seems like they should've taken the Turfway path.
11. Promise Keeper - Very skeptical of this horse stepping up off fast maiden win in the slop. Was badly beaten prior start to Candy Man Rocket. Likely overbet.
12. Sittin on Go - Tough draw first of all. Won Iroquois impressively as a long-shot but then underperformed in 3 stakes races against tough fields. Faces weaker here and could be an overlay but looks unlikely to win. Maybe underneath.
Bottom Line - Candy Man Rocket is a legitimate favorite and eligible to improve again. He could get softened up by a fast pace. The main threats are Hidden Stash and Super Strong. Use Boca Boy and Sittin on Go underneath at big odds.